Strive CEO Matt Cole declared that Bitcoin (BTC) could effectively "go to infinity" against the US dollar, shifting the narrative from digital asset scarcity to imminent sovereign debt crisis. Speaking on Bloomberg Crypto, Cole argued that the primary driver of Bitcoin's future price action will be the devaluation of the USD due to Washington's mounting fiscal liabilities, rather than intrinsic network fundamentals.

Market Context

The commentary arrives as the broader digital asset market has reclaimed approximately $3 trillion in total market value since January. Despite Bitcoin trading roughly flat over the same period, the divergence between BTC's price action and the performance of crypto-adjacent equities highlights a rotating interest in fiscal arbitrage plays. Strive, a Bitcoin treasury company that raises capital to accumulate BTC on its balance sheet, has positioned itself as an aggressive buyer through this cycle, leveraging its capital structure to capitalize on perceived monetary instability.

Analysis

Cole's thesis rests on the fragility of the US Treasury market. He posits that if the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department were to step back from their current interventions in the bond market, the 10-year Treasury yield would already exceed 10%. He credits Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with artificially capping long-end rates in the short term but warns that this intervention merely delays an inevitable reckoning, given the lack of bipartisan willingness to cut federal spending.

This macro-driven perspective underpins Strive's public forecast of a 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for Bitcoin through 2030. Cole characterizes this projection as conservative relative to historical bull-market cycles, a view he first articulated when he called the end of the bear market last month. The strategy is already yielding results for Strive shareholders; the company's SATA preferred stock, which pays a daily cash dividend, has outperformed Bitcoin itself by more than 100% in 2026, according to Cole.

Cole also defended the viability of the Bitcoin treasury company model, arguing that it never fundamentally broke. Instead, he suggests that firms lacking a clear investment thesis or sound debt terms struggled during the downturn, while disciplined buyers like Strive continued accumulating. He notes that institutional Wall Street treasuries have also resumed buying, validating the model's persistence despite earlier market skepticism.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin forecast: 50% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030, per Strive's public forecast.

- Market value: Digital assets have reclaimed $3 trillion in total market value since January.

- Treasury yield: Strive CEO estimates 10-year yields would sit north of 10% without Fed/Treasury intervention.

- Equity performance: Strive's SATA preferred stock has outperformed Bitcoin by more than 100% in 2026.

- BTC price action: Bitcoin has traded roughly flat over the period in which its market cap recovered.

What to Watch

Traders should monitor the spread between Bitcoin's spot price and the performance of Bitcoin treasury stocks like Strive, as the latter's outperformance suggests the market is pricing in fiscal debasement rather than pure asset adoption. Key indicators include Treasury Secretary Bessent's ongoing management of long-end yields and any shifts in the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening or easing stance. Additionally, watch for increased issuance from other corporate treasuries entering the Bitcoin accumulation game, which could signal a broader institutional consensus on the 'debt crisis' trade.