Prediction-market operator Kalshi is preparing to seek U.S. regulatory approval for approximately 60 perpetual futures contracts tied to major stocks and exchange-traded funds, including Tesla, Apple, and Nvidia. The move would introduce crypto-native trading products to the equities market, allowing leveraged bets that trade around the clock without expiration dates.
Market Context
Perpetual futures, commonly known as perps, have dominated the crypto landscape since BitMEX introduced them in 2016 and newer venues like Hyperliquid expanded their use. These contracts allow traders to bet on price movements using borrowed money, with regular payments keeping the contract price aligned with the underlying asset. Kalshi’s proposal aims to bring this 24/7 trading model to traditional equities, offering a continuous view of market sentiment even when Nasdaq or NYSE are closed.
Analysis
The initiative has ignited a fierce regulatory debate over jurisdiction. Kalshi previously secured CFTC approval for a bitcoin perpetual contract in May, but the regulator warned that this structure might not apply to all asset classes. The core question is whether equity-linked perps fall under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) or the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Citadel Securities filed a letter with both regulators on Thursday, arguing that products tied to U.S. public companies must remain under SEC oversight. The firm warned that placing these contracts under a different regulatory regime could create a "parallel shadow market" with weaker safeguards against insider trading and market manipulation. Citadel highlighted specific risks, such as employees trading on undisclosed earnings information while the stock market is shut, or major news breaking during a trading halt while the perp continues to trade.
Key Numbers
- Kalshi plans to seek approval for approximately 60 perpetual futures contracts.
- Target assets include major tickers such as Tesla (TSLA), Apple (AAPL), and Nvidia (NVDA).
- Kalshi received CFTC approval for a bitcoin perpetual contract in May 2026.
- Perpetual futures were first introduced by BitMEX in 2016.
What to Watch
Traders should monitor the regulatory response from the SEC and CFTC, as the outcome will determine if 24/7 equity trading becomes a reality in the U.S. market. Key issues to watch include how regulators handle trading halts for the underlying stock versus the perpetual contract, and whether they implement coordinated surveillance mechanisms to prevent arbitrage or insider trading during off-hours. The decision could set a precedent for other prediction markets and exchanges seeking to blend crypto-style derivatives with traditional equities.