SpaceX (SPCX) faces a severe valuation critique from New York University marketing professor Scott Galloway, who asserts the rocket maker’s shares are worth only $10 to $30. With SPCX trading at approximately $148, this forecast implies a potential decline of nearly 80% from current levels. Galloway contends that Wall Street has fundamentally miscalculated the company's worth, labeling the stock as "crazy overvalued" in a recent podcast appearance.

Market Context

SpaceX completed its initial public offering in June 2026, raising over $75 billion and listing on the Nasdaq. The stock priced at $135 per share, granting the company a valuation near $1.8 trillion at debut. Since then, SPCX has experienced significant volatility, climbing as high as $225 before retreating to $105, a drop of more than 50%. It has recently recovered to trade above its IPO price, currently sitting near $148 with a market cap of $1.91 trillion.

Analysis

Galloway argues that the current price action is driven by mechanical trading quirks rather than underlying business performance. He highlights that only 4-5% of SpaceX shares were available for public trading immediately post-IPO, creating artificial scarcity. Furthermore, the stock's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index forced passive funds to accumulate shares regardless of valuation. Galloway also points to SpaceX pricing a $25 billion bond offering less than two weeks after going public, despite holding over $100 billion in cash. He interprets this debt sale as evidence that SpaceX is effectively an AI infrastructure bet rather than a traditional aerospace company.

The skepticism is rooted in SpaceX’s financial disclosures. Data from Fiscal.ai indicates that while sales have grown from $10.4 billion in 2023 to $23 billion in the last 12 months, the company remains deeply unprofitable. SpaceX reported net losses of $4.6 billion in 2023 and $4.9 billion in 2025, with trailing 12-month losses totaling $8.2 billion. The company burned through $31.2 billion in free cash flow on a trailing basis, driven largely by $41.1 billion in capital expenditures tied to AI compute buildout.

Key Numbers

- Current SPCX Price: ~$148

- Galloway Price Target: $10 - $30

- Implied Downside: ~80%

- SpaceX Market Cap: $1.91 trillion

- IPO Price: $135

- Trailing 12-Month Net Loss: $8.2 billion

- Trailing 12-Month Free Cash Flow Burn: $31.2 billion

- Capital Expenditures (Trailing): $41.1 billion

- Operating Margin (Trailing): -16.2%

What to Watch

Traders should monitor SPCX’s price action relative to the $105 low and $225 high established since the June IPO, as these levels mark the recent volatility range. Key catalysts include upcoming quarterly earnings reports that will reveal whether the $41.1 billion in capital expenditures is translating into revenue growth sufficient to offset the $8.2 billion trailing net loss. Additionally, watch for any further secondary share offerings or lock-up expirations that could increase the float beyond the current 4-5% availability, potentially alleviating the artificial scarcity Galloway cites as a primary driver of the current valuation.