Bitcoin (BTC) rose about 1.5% to trade just above $77,600 in Asian morning hours Thursday, climbing back above the $77,500 mark after buyers defended the roughly $76,350 average cost basis of active investors. The rebound lacked strong spot-market support as exchange inflows increased and spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds lost about $236 million over 24 hours.

Market Context

The broader market navigated renewed inflation pressures Thursday as renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude sharply higher, reviving the inflation trade. The ten-year Treasury yield climbed to just above 4.8%, its highest close since 2023, while the dollar index firmed to just under 100. Gold settled near $4,418 per troy ounce. Equities took the bond market moves in stride with the S&P 500 closing at 7,646 and the Dow adding roughly 277 points.

XRP led all major tokens Thursday, climbing almost 3% to $1.36 as traders rotated into altcoins following Bitcoin's stabilization. BNB added nearly 2% to just under $692, while Solana gained about 2% to hold above the $100 line. Tron rose roughly 1% to approximately 33 cents. Ether lagged the board at just under $2,400.

Analysis

Bitcoin came within $50 of its average cost basis for active investors before buyers stepped in Wednesday night, according to Bitfinex analysts. The level has absorbed sellers who bought during February and March all week, with many exiting at breakeven rather than realizing losses. "With August's momentum carrying into the month, we expect that any intra-month correction leaves the odds in favour of continuation higher on the higher timeframes," the firm noted.

The rebound occurred despite a challenging macro environment as renewed geopolitical tensions near critical oil shipping routes pushed energy prices higher and revived inflation concerns. Higher Treasury yields typically pressure risk assets, yet Bitcoin held its ground against the bond market's move. The CME FedWatch tool now puts the odds of a quarter-point hike at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting at just above 62%, down from about 67% one day prior and roughly 37% a week ago before Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.

The options market is positioned around Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, with downside protection sitting between $68,000 and $75,000 for the window from payrolls into the September 11 CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Upside exposure remains in calls above current levels while perpetual leverage sits well below its August peak.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin price: $77,600 (+1.5% over 24 hours)

- XRP price: $1.36 (+2.9% over 24 hours)

- Ether price: just under $2,400 (lagged major tokens)

- Solana price: ~$102 (+2% over 24 hours)

- Average cost basis for active Bitcoin investors: approximately $76,350 (per Bitfinex)

- Fed hike odds for September meeting: just above 62%, down from 67% one day prior

- Ten-year Treasury yield: just above 4.8%, highest since 2023

- Spot Bitcoin ETF flows: roughly -$236 million over 24 hours

What to Watch

Friday's nonfarm payrolls report will be the key catalyst settling expectations for the September FOMC meeting, where odds of a quarter-point hike currently sit at 62%. A weak reading could push those odds lower and put $80,000 back within reach for Bitcoin. Wednesday's ADP private payrolls number showed weakness, which analysts say could foreshadow disappointment in the official count.

The September 11 CPI release at 8:30 a.m. ET will mark another critical data point as traders have built downside protection between $68,000 and $75,000 through that window. Bitfinex analysts cautioned that September has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin, averaging a -2.95% return since 2013, though they expect any intra-month correction to ultimately favor continuation higher on the weekly timeframe.

XRP continues trading around $1.36 as traders monitor whether altcoin leadership can sustain if Bitcoin stabilizes above its cost-basis support zone.