Anthropic is positioning for what could become one of the largest IPOs on record, with Wall Street valuing the AI startup based on projected 2028 revenue of roughly $190 billion to $200 billion—nearly quadruple its current business pace, according to two people familiar with the company's financials.

Market Context

The valuation approach marks a significant departure from traditional IPO underwriting, where bankers typically apply multiples to trailing or near-term forward periods. Rather than using 12-month revenue forecasts, investors are being asked to underwrite growth projections extending two years out, reflecting both the rapid expansion of Anthropic's business and the difficulty in benchmarking an AI company still absorbing heavy infrastructure costs.

Analysis

The $190 billion to $200 billion revenue projection dwarfs the $47 billion run rate—representing current annualized business velocity—that Anthropic publicized as recently as May. Bankers and investors are applying enterprise value-to-revenue multiples based on these forecasts, a method common for high-growth software companies without mature profit profiles but less typical when extended this far forward.

The comparable company set includes Cloud infrastructure firm Cloudflare, enterprise software specialist Palantir Technologies, and Elon Musk's SpaceX, which went public in June at a record valuation using projections extending to 2029. Cerebras Systems similarly cited 2028 revenue expectations during its IPO process earlier this year.

Investors are betting that as Anthropic scales, revenue growth will outpace the substantial costs required for computing power, model training, and talent acquisition—eventually allowing margins to expand significantly. However, AI infrastructure spending has contributed to pullbacks in several high-profile tech stocks recently, highlighting execution risk in the thesis.

Key Numbers

- $190B-$200B: Projected 2028 revenue range cited by sources

- $47B: Current revenue run rate publicized as of May

- ~4x: Multiple between current run rate and 2028 forecast

- 2 years: Forward period being used for valuation multiples

What to Watch

Anthropic's upcoming analyst day will be critical for providing institutional investors with detailed financial breakdowns supporting the projections. Potential comparable company re-ratings, shifts in AI infrastructure spending sentiment, and broader market appetite for mega-cap technology offerings will all influence pricing parameters. The company's path to profitability and margin expansion trajectory will remain key questions for IPO roadshow participants seeking clarity on valuation discipline.