Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald said bitcoin is likely in the final stages of its current bear cycle, with historical trading patterns pointing to a potential market bottom around October as the cryptocurrency trades near $59,500 and down roughly 51% from its late-2025 peak.
Market Context
Bitcoin has struggled in recent months following a sharp June selloff driven by persistent exchange-traded fund outflows, elevated interest rates and weaker risk appetite across global markets. The world's largest cryptocurrency was trading around $59,500 at time of publication, having fallen more than 50% from its late-2025 peak. Ether and most major altcoins have underperformed bitcoin during the downturn, though certain sectors including decentralized finance and tokenization have shown relative resilience.
Analysis
Cantor analysts led by Gareth Gacetta said in a Tuesday report that they believe the market is only months away from the bottom of this pullback. The bank pointed to historical cycle data showing that across the previous three bitcoin market cycles, BTC bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking. As of June 10, bitcoin was 252 days past its 2025 peak, suggesting a potential low could arrive around late October if patterns repeat.
The analysts cautioned that their model is not a precise timing tool given macroeconomic, regulatory and geopolitical risks, but said crypto's reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing. With markets nearing a potential turning point, Cantor urged investors to shift focus from speculative activity toward networks with durable value accrual mechanisms.
While crypto adoption continues expanding across stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, on-chain credit and DeFi, the bank argued that usage alone does not drive token value. Long-term winners will need to convert ecosystem activity into sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand, according to Cantor. The firm identified Hyperliquid as the clearest example of fee-driven token economics through HYPE buybacks and burns, while bitcoin remains the benchmark monetary asset and Ethereum serves as the dominant collateral layer for on-chain finance.
Cantor also highlighted digital asset treasury companies as an overlooked investment theme, noting that the strongest firms are evolving beyond passive crypto holders into active operators generating yield, building infrastructure and providing institutional access to digital assets. The bank initiated coverage of Forward Industries (FWDI) and Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH) with overweight ratings.
Key Numbers
- Bitcoin down approximately 51% from its late-2025 peak as of June 10
- BTC was 252 days past its 2025 peak at time of Cantor's analysis
- Previous bitcoin market cycles bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking
- Bitcoin trading around $59,500 at publication time
- Cantor price target for Forward Industries (FWDI): $7.90
- Cantor price target for Cypherpunk Technologies (CYPH): $0.90
What to Watch
Traders should monitor whether bitcoin approaches its historical cycle bottoming window around late October 2026. The potential resolution of current macro headwinds, including sustained ETF outflows and elevated interest rate conditions, could serve as catalysts for a market turn. Key levels to watch include the $59,500 support area and whether selling pressure from institutional products continues or stabilizes. Cantor recommends focusing on networks with proven fee-driven token economics or established monetary premium rather than pure speculative plays.
The performance of differentiated Layer-1 and Layer-2 networks including Solana, Sui, XRP and Zcash will also be worth tracking to see if they can demonstrate sustainable value accrual beyond raw usage metrics.