Bitcoin could plunge another 30% to the $42,000-$44,000 range by year-end if a prominent miner's analysis holds true, with the current bear market bottoming in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Market Context

The warning arrives as bitcoin hovers near $60,700, down significantly from its all-time highs and trading precariously close to its 200-week moving average—a technical level that has preceded extended periods of weakness in previous cycles. The cryptocurrency has also been caught up in the unwinding of the debasement trade that previously lifted bitcoin alongside gold and silver amid hawkish Federal Reserve positioning.

Jiang Zhuoer, one of China's most recognized bitcoin miners and founder of the LeBit mining pool, laid out his bearish case on X (formerly Twitter), predicting the current downturn will find its floor between October and December 2026 at roughly $42,000 to $44,000. That target represents a decline of approximately 30% from bitcoin's current trading level near $60,700.

Analysis

Jiang's timing framework relies heavily on Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), the largest corporate holder of bitcoin with approximately 576,230 tokens under its belt as of recent filings. He analyzed Strategy's market net asset value (mNAV)—the ratio comparing the company's stock price to the per-share value of the bitcoin it holds—which has dropped to 0.72.

A reading above 1 indicates investors are valuing Strategy at a premium to its bitcoin holdings, while below 1 signals they view the company at a discount. The current 0.72 mNAV means the market is pricing Strategy roughly 28% below the value of its bitcoin stack—a sign of deep pessimism toward the corporate crypto trade.

That level closely mirrors the 0.7 low Strategy hit on May 11, 2022, during the last major bull-to-bear transition. Back then, bitcoin reached its own cycle low of approximately $15,500 about six months later in November 2022. Jiang contends that mNAV historically hits its floor roughly six months ahead of bitcoin's price bottom, leading him to project late 2026 as the likely timing for the cryptocurrency's nadir.

For the actual price target, Jiang turns to a separate model built around bitcoin's four-year cycle—a framework tied to the block reward halving events that occur at that interval. He compared bitcoin's price pattern to a ball bouncing on the ground, with each successive bounce growing smaller as market capitalization expands. The model's output suggested a low of $44,016 on October 31, though Jiang emphasized his framework is more reliable for timing than exact pricing, which explains why he offered a range rather than a precise figure.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin current price: approximately $60,700

- Jiang's projected bottom range: $42,000-$44,000

- Potential decline from current levels: roughly 30%

- Strategy mNAV ratio: 0.72 (28% discount to bitcoin holdings)

- Four-year cycle model low target: $44,016 on Oct. 31, 2026

- FxPro suggested plausible low: $55,000

What to Watch

Traders should monitor whether bitcoin can hold its 200-week moving average, a level that has historically marked turning points in previous cycles. The unwinding of the debasement trade—fueled by persistent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve—remains a headwind for risk assets including cryptocurrency.

Strategy's mNAV will be critical to watch; if it breaks decisively below 0.7, Jiang's historical precedent suggests bitcoin would have approximately six more months of downside before finding its cycle bottom. The October-to-December window represents the high-probability zone for that low according to his models.

Additional catalysts include any shifts in Fed policy rhetoric, which could either accelerate or derail the debasement trade unwind, and continued institutional sentiment toward Strategy's bitcoin acquisition strategy—some analysts have recently called on the company to suspend purchases, citing overexposure.