Bitcoin miners that have spent the past two years reinventing themselves as AI infrastructure providers may be entering a more difficult phase of their transformation: proving they can actually deliver.
Market Context
VanEck argues that the market is beginning to move beyond the excitement surrounding AI-related contract announcements and toward a more fundamental question of whether miners can build and finance the massive data center projects needed to serve AI customers. The asset manager estimates that the sector faces a combined near-term funding gap of roughly $50 billion, with long-term capital needs of about $221 billion if current development plans proceed.
Analysis
"Execution, not signing, becomes the next premium," said VanEck investment analyst Griffin MacMaster and head of digital asset research, Matthew Sigel. They noted that the industry has so far delivered only about 25% of the AI and high-performance computing capacity it has leased to customers. Companies that miss construction milestones risk "structural de-ratings" from investors.
The report comes amid a dramatic shift in the bitcoin mining industry. Following the collapse in mining profitability after the 2024 halving, many operators began repurposing their power infrastructure to support AI workloads, betting that technology companies would pay significantly more for electricity and data center capacity than bitcoin miners.
While bitcoin has lost about 24% of its value since January amid shifting investor focus toward AI, bitcoin miner stocks have largely outperformed. Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up nearly 94% year-to-date, while Cipher Mining (CIFR) has gained 62%. Others are showing similar gains as the fresh narrative has driven some of the biggest stock moves in the crypto sector.
Yet VanEck argues that valuations remain difficult because investors are trying to price businesses caught between two worlds: declining mining operations and AI businesses that have yet to generate meaningful cash flow. For now, the firm says the clearest valuation metric is "energized power" — the amount of operational power infrastructure a company has available. Companies with signed AI leases command valuation multiples above 10 times energized power, while miners still pitching future projects trade at lower multiples.
The report also expects the market to place greater emphasis on tenant quality. Operators serving investment-grade hyperscalers could enjoy lower financing costs and higher valuations than those working with smaller AI startups.
Key Numbers
- $50 billion: near-term funding gap facing bitcoin miners pivoting to AI infrastructure
- $221 billion: long-term capital needs if current development plans proceed
- 25%: portion of leased AI and HPC capacity currently delivered by miners
- 10x+: valuation multiple on energized power commanded by companies with signed AI leases
- RIOT up nearly 94% year-to-date; CIFR up 62%; bitcoin down about 24% since January
What to Watch
Core Scientific (CORZ) signed a multibillion-dollar hosting agreement with AI startup CoreWeave, transforming the company into an AI infrastructure provider. TeraWulf (WULF), Hut 8 (HUT), Iren (IREN), and Cipher Mining have all announced plans to lease power and data center capacity to AI customers, while Marathon Digital (MARA), Riot Platforms (RIOT) and CleanSpark (CLSK) are pursuing hybrid strategies that maintain bitcoin mining operations while exploring AI opportunities.
VanEck identified HIVE, Bitdeer (BTDR), Keel and Iren as names with potential upside if they secure additional contracts, while suggesting MARA, CLSK and RIOT remain more closely tied to bitcoin's price performance. The winners, VanEck argues, will be the companies that can turn leased megawatts into functioning data centers on time and on budget.