Bitcoin may have already established its cycle bottom near $59,000, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick, who declared Monday that "Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto Spring" as multiple bullish signals converged for the cryptocurrency markets.

Market Context

The shift in sentiment marks a notable reversal after several months during which crypto markets grappled with rising geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation concerns and sustained outflows from U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds. Bitcoin was recently trading around $66,300 to $66,586 per coin, up approximately 1% over the past 24 hours, according to data cited in Kendrick's research.

The broader market backdrop has improved considerably since late spring. Last month, regulators eased barriers for crypto derivatives in the United States, while growing institutional participation provided additional support for sentiment. Crypto exchange Kraken launched perpetual futures to U.S. clients earlier this week, joining a list of companies now offering the popular derivatives product domestically.

Analysis

Kendrick's confidence grew after three specific developments materialized: renewed bitcoin purchases by Strategy (MSTR), the former MicroStrategy; a return to positive ETF inflows; and continued weakness in oil prices that reduced concerns about inflationary pressure pushing bond yields higher.

"The decline to roughly $59,000 represented the cycle low," Kendrick wrote Friday, though he outlined those three catalysts he wanted to see before gaining conviction. By Monday, all three conditions had been satisfied.

Strategy, the largest corporate holder of bitcoin, disclosed it purchased another 1,587 BTC last week, resuming accumulation after a pause. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs posted net inflows of $86 million on Friday following an extended stretch of notable redemptions that Kendrick characterized as among the sharpest since the products launched in January 2024.

The analyst noted some investors may have been raising cash to participate in the anticipated SpaceX IPO, though he described that explanation as anecdotal rather than confirmed. Oil prices continued their descent, easing fears that elevated energy costs could reignite inflation concerns and apply upward pressure on Treasury yields.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong echoed Kendrick's assessment Monday, stating he believes bitcoin may have already bottomed near $60,000 and that he remains "as bullish as ever" on the cryptocurrency's long-term prospects. The exchange leader's comments added institutional weight to the technical case for a market turning point.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin cycle low cited: approximately $59,000 (per Standard Chartered)

- Current bitcoin price range: $66,300-$66,586

- Friday ETF net inflows: $86 million

- Strategy purchase last week: 1,587 BTC acquired

- Key resistance level for confirmation: $83,000 (early May high)

What to Watch

Kendrick emphasized that one major test remains before confirming a new sustained uptrend. Bitcoin has exhibited a pattern of making lower highs during recent rallies, and the analyst said a decisive break above the $83,000 level reached in early May would strongly validate the bullish thesis.

Market participants should monitor whether spot bitcoin ETF inflows remain positive in the coming weeks, as these products have become one of the most significant sources of structural demand since their U.S. launch. Continued corporate accumulation from Strategy and other treasury adopters will also serve as a barometer for institutional confidence.

Oil price movements and broader macroeconomic conditions warrant close attention, given Kendrick's explicit linkage between energy market weakness and crypto's improved setup. Any reversal in the commodity's downward trajectory could complicate the inflation outlook and test the current optimism.