SpaceX's SPCX perpetual contract on Hyperliquid surged back to between $176 and $183 Friday morning, recovering sharply from a low near $153 earlier this week as the crypto market repriced expectations for Elon Musk's rocket company's highly anticipated IPO debut.
Market Context
The rebound marks a significant reversal from midweek trading levels around $157, when the contract implied only roughly a 16% premium to SpaceX's $135 per share IPO price. The recovery comes as other shadow markets, including IG International derivatives and Polymarket, are signaling strong demand for SpaceX shares at Friday's expected debut.
Analysis
The SPCX perpetual has become one of the few live windows into where traders expect the stock to open, despite offering no actual ownership rights. The contract is cash-settled and does not confer SpaceX shares, allocation rights, or any claim on the company—making its movements purely speculative on first-day performance. Earlier this week, pre-IPO trading showed notable caution, with SPCX falling roughly 30% over the past few weeks from May levels when the premium neared 60%. At Friday's $183 level, traders are now pricing in a more robust opening than midweek lows suggested.
Key Numbers
- SPCX rebounded to $176-$183 on Friday morning from near $153 earlier this week
- Implied premium to SpaceX IPO price of $135 stands at approximately 36%
- Open interest on Hyperliquid stood near $216 million
- 24-hour trading volume exceeded $150 million on the platform
- IG International derivatives imply a SpaceX valuation around $2.4 trillion
- Polymarket traders assigned 70% odds to SpaceX closing above $2 trillion on day one
What to Watch
Market participants will closely monitor where SPCX trades relative to the IPO price as SpaceX begins its first official trading session. The gap between crypto shadow markets and the actual stock opening could create arbitrage opportunities or signal shifting sentiment around the company's $1.77 trillion valuation set by the $135 offer price.