Elon Musk's SpaceX has priced its highly anticipated IPO at $135 per share, valuing the company at approximately $1.8 trillion, but crypto traders are signaling a more measured outlook for first-day trading than traditional bookbuilds suggest.
Market Context
The official IPO book has drawn overwhelming demand, with Reuters reporting over $250 billion in investor interest for a $75 billion raise, making the deal four times oversubscribed. However, on decentralized perpetual exchange Hyperliquid, synthetic SpaceX shares have been declining sharply since their mid-May launch, suggesting traders are pricing a more conservative first-day premium than the traditional market indicates.
Analysis
The SPCX perpetual futures contract, which tracks where SpaceX equity might trade without providing actual share allocation or ownership claims, has lost its earlier premium despite continued demand in the official bookbuild. In May, the crypto-based derivative priced SpaceX roughly 60% above the $135 offer price. That implied first-day premium has compressed to approximately 16% as of Wednesday.
The decline may partly reflect broader market pressure on crypto assets heading into the IPO. Bitcoin remains well below its January highs, and some investors could be raising cash to fund their SpaceX allocations, adding selling pressure to the same risk markets where SPCX trades.
Unlike traditional indications of interest collected during an IPO bookbuild, traders in the perpetual futures have actual money at risk and can lose it before shares begin trading on traditional markets. The contract is cash-settled, allowing participants to bet on equity prices without holding actual shares or allocation rights.
Key Numbers
- SPCX traded near $157 on Wednesday, down approximately 27% from mid-May launch price of around $216
- Contract briefly reached as high as $230 shortly after launch in May
- Implied first-day premium compressed from roughly 60% above offer to approximately 16%
- SpaceX IPO priced at $135 per share with no price range during the bookbuild
- Deal drew more than $250 billion in investor interest for a $75 billion raise, making it four times oversubscribed
What to Watch
The divergence between traditional and crypto market pricing will be key as shares prepare to go live this week. If SPCX continues its decline or stabilizes at current levels, it could signal that institutional demand may not translate into the same magnitude of first-day gains some investors anticipated.
Traders should monitor whether bitcoin's weakness persists heading into the IPO, as crypto market conditions could continue to pressure the synthetic product even after traditional shares begin trading. The gap between the $135 offer price and SPCX's current implied premium will be watched closely for any signs of convergence or further divergence.