More than half of all Bitcoin in circulation is sitting on unrealized losses as BTC tests historically significant bear-market support levels, with a key Glassnode metric flashing a signal that has coincided with every major market bottom for the world's largest cryptocurrency.
According to on-chain data from Glassnode, the amount of Bitcoin supply in loss peaked at approximately 10.5 million BTC during Thursday's trading session when prices fell to as low as $61,300. With total circulating supply standing at roughly 20 million BTC, this means more than half of all coins are currently held at an unrealized loss.
Market Context
The development marks the first time during the current market cycle that Bitcoin held at a loss has exceeded Bitcoin held in profit, which declined to around 9.8 million BTC. This supply-in-loss metric crossing above supply-in-profit represents a rare occurrence that historically only happens during deep bear-market conditions and has frequently aligned with major price bottoms.
The decline comes as Bitcoin touched its 200-week moving average of approximately $61,300, a long-term trend indicator that calculates the average price over the previous 200 weeks. This moving average has historically acted as a critical support level during every bear market cycle in Bitcoin's history.
Analysis
The significance of this metric lies not just in the absolute numbers but in what it reveals about investor positioning and potential capitulation patterns. When more than half of all circulating Bitcoin is underwater, it suggests widespread pain among holders who acquired coins at higher prices—a condition that has historically preceded recoveries.
However, historical precedent shows the duration of these periods can vary dramatically. During the 2015 bear market, supply in loss and supply in profit remained near equilibrium for nearly a year before recovery took hold. The 2019 correction saw this dynamic persist for roughly six months, while the Covid-driven capitulation in March 2020 was compressed to around one month. The prolonged 2022 bear market maintained this condition for approximately six months.
The varying duration of these periods makes it difficult to estimate how long Bitcoin could remain at depressed levels, even as traditional support indicators suggest limited downside from current prices.
Key Numbers
- Approximately 10.5 million BTC was held in loss at Thursday's lows (Glassnode one-hour resolution)
- Total circulating supply is roughly 20 million BTC, meaning over half of all coins are underwater
- Supply in profit declined to approximately 9.8 million BTC
- Bitcoin's 200-week moving average sits around $61,300
- Next major support zone below $60,000 is the realized price at approximately $54,000
What to Watch
Traders should monitor whether Bitcoin can hold the $60,000 psychological level, which has historically been a significant inflection point. If this support fails, attention will likely shift toward the realized price zone around $54,000—a level that represents the average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin based on on-chain movement data.
Bitcoin has traded below its Realized Price during every major bear market in its history, making this zone a critical threshold for assessing whether deeper capitulation remains possible. The 200-week moving average at approximately $61,300 will serve as immediate support to hold if the market attempts to stabilize.