Bitcoin bears are having a field day as the cryptocurrency sheds 14% over the past week, falling to levels not seen since February's crash and trading near $62,309. The digital asset has alarmed traders, with analysts warning that a break below the critical $60,000 threshold could trigger further deterioration. Yet amid the gloom, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, sees reason for cautious optimism — arguing "the low is almost in."

Market Context

Broader crypto markets have taken an equally brutal beating this week as bitcoin struggles to find footing. The decline comes despite relatively stable traditional risk assets, highlighting the sector-specific pressures facing digital currencies. Bitcoin's underperformance versus equities has been a defining theme of 2026, with institutional and retail participants alike reassessing exposure. The cryptocurrency now trades close to its 200-week simple moving average — a technical level that has historically marked the end of bear markets.

Analysis

Kendrick's case for a near-term bottom rests on three pillars, though each comes with significant conditionality. First, he points to Strategy (MSTR), formerly MicroStrategy, and its recent BTC sales. The firm sold 32 bitcoin last week — its first sale in more than three years. Kendrick expects Strategy to repeat its December 2022 playbook: buying back more than it sold just two days later in that instance. If confirmed next Monday, he said this would serve as a tentative signal the low is in, with potential buyback amounts reaching as much as 100 times the recent sales volume.

Second, Kendrick argues U.S. spot ETF holdings are structurally stronger than feared. While the 11 Bitcoin ETFs have seen $5 billion in net outflows over the past three weeks, cumulative net inflows since inception remain at $54.2 billion — right where they were earlier this year. ETF holdings have dropped from approximately 682,000 BTC to 674,000 BTC, a decline Kendrick characterizes as "broadly unchanged." This suggests institutional conviction remains intact despite short-term price pressure.

Third, leveraged long liquidations appear largely exhausted. Exchanges have liquidated $1.5 billion in bitcoin futures positions — a figure comparable to January's. With BTC already badly underperforming equities this year, the pool of leveraged longs left to clear has shrunk meaningfully, Kendrick argued.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin 7-day decline: -14%

- Current trading level: ~$62,309

- Critical support threshold: $60,000

- ETF net outflows (3 weeks): $5 billion

- Cumulative ETF inflows since inception: $54.2 billion

- ETF BTC holdings change: 682k to 674k (roughly flat)

- Bitcoin futures liquidations: $1.5 billion

What to Watch

Kendrick acknowledges too many "Ifs" remain to predict an exact bottom with confidence. Traders should monitor Strategy's next reported bitcoin transactions — confirmation of aggressive buybacks would validate his thesis. ETF flow data will be critical; renewed inflows could signal institutional accumulation at distressed prices. The $60,000 level remains the key technical line in the sand for bears and bulls alike. Kendrick himself offered a forward-looking take: "I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k and ETH at $4k, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted." The 200-week SMA on weekly charts will also merit close attention as historical precedent suggests previous bear markets ended near this average.