Bitcoin (BTC) staged a sharp recovery Wednesday, climbing back to the $64,000 level after an early Asian session sell-off that briefly pushed the cryptocurrency below its 200-week simple moving average at $61,845. The move fits the profile of a classic oversold bounce, though market participants remain divided on whether this represents the bottom or merely a pause in a deeper downtrend.
Market Context
The broader crypto market has endured a brutal week, with bitcoin down 12.6% to $63,872 and ether off 10% to $1,781 over the past seven days. Solana slipped 12.9% to $70.25, while BNB, XRP, TRON, and dogecoin all traded between 5% and 9% lower during the same stretch. The 13-session ETF outflow streak and Strategy's first BTC sale have set a bearish tone across the space.
The exception has been Hyperliquid's HYPE token, up 26.2% to $72.50 over the week, and Zcash, which tacked on 12% to $601. These two coins represent the only top-13 tokens posting gains as everything else bled value. Worldcoin's WLD led gainers Thursday morning Hong Kong time, rising 33% over the past 24 hours and nearly 60% on the week.
Analysis
On the daily chart, bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) dropped below 30 on Tuesday—a reading that typically signals oversold conditions and often precedes short-term relief rallies. Intraday timeframes showed similar oversold RSI readings when bitcoin slipped below $62,000 earlier in the session. The bounce from those levels suggests some dip buyers stepped in around psychological support.
Panic has crept back into the derivatives market, spurring demand for options bets that protect against potential price losses below $50,000. In the past 24 hours, the $50,000 strike put expiring on June 26 was the most traded bet on Deribit, the world's largest crypto options exchange by volume. Two other puts at strikes of $65,000 and $55,000 also saw notable volume, while the only call to crack the top five was the $80,000 strike.
The overwhelming presence of put volume across multiple lower strikes indicates that a notable portion of options flow is betting on—or hedging against—bitcoin failing to sustain its current levels. This positioning suggests traders remain cautious despite Wednesday's bounce.
While the rebound has provided some breathing room for bulls, the broader technical picture remains cautious. Widely followed momentum indicators, including the 50-, 100-, and 200-hour moving averages, continue to trend lower, pointing to an underlying bearish bias in the near term. It remains to be seen whether this bounce can evolve into a sustained recovery rally or if it will prove to be nothing more than a temporary oversold relief in an ongoing downtrend.
Arthur Hayes, founder of family office Maelstrom, may have exited his HYPE and NEAR positions Thursday afternoon Hong Kong time, citing higher energy prices, a wave of upcoming AI IPOs, and his expectation that risk assets could peak between now and September. His exit came as Hyperliquid continues to dominate DEX perpetual futures volume at roughly $12.6 billion over 24 hours—more than three times second-place Aster's $4 billion.
Key Numbers
- Bitcoin (BTC) recovered to ~$64,000 after dipping below its 200-week SMA at $61,845
- BTC down 12.6% over the past week; ether off 10%; Solana down 12.9%
- Hyperliquid processed $12.6 billion in perpetual futures volume over 24 hours
- HYPE up 26.2% on the week to $72.50; Zcash gained 12% to $601
- Worldcoin (WLD) led gainers, rising 33% in 24 hours and nearly 60% on the week
- $50,000 June 26 put was most traded contract on Deribit over past 24 hours
What to Watch
The immediate resistance sits at the $68,000-$70,000 zone where selling pressure could resume. On the downside, the $61,845 level—bitcoin's 200-week moving average—becomes critical support; a sustained break below would signal further deterioration.
Upcoming catalysts include continued ETF flow data and any signals from Strategy regarding additional bitcoin purchases. The derivatives market's heavy put skew at lower strikes suggests traders are positioning for potential test of the $50,000-$55,000 range in coming weeks. Weekend price action will be closely watched to determine whether HYPE's outperformance represents genuine rotation or merely noise in a broader selloff.