BofA Global Research strategist Michael Hartnett is cautioning investors that the stock market has entered the late innings of its bull cycle, advising portfolio protection strategies as skeptics point to mounting warning signs since the start of the second quarter.

Market Context

The current bull market originated in late 2022 and has repeatedly overcome obstacles throughout its run. However, since the beginning of Q2 2026, market observers have identified concerning signals that have made Wall Street veterans increasingly uncomfortable with the sustainability of further upside.

Analysis

Hartnett, a veteran strategist at BofA Global Research, frames his outlook through a contrarian lens: investors should be 'long humility and short hubris' when the music finally stops. This late-cycle positioning suggests that while the bull market may not end immediately, the risk-reward dynamic has shifted unfavorably for those maintaining aggressive long exposures.

The characterization of being in 'late innings' implies limited runway remains before a correction or bear market phase begins, though timing such inflection points precisely remains notoriously difficult even for experienced strategists. The buildup of warning signs since Q2 began signals that sophisticated money may already be rotating toward defensive positioning.

Key Numbers

- Bull market duration: Since late 2022

- Current cycle stage: Late innings per BofA Hartnett

- Warning sign identification period: Since start of Q2 2026

- Strategic recommendation: 'Long humility, short hubris'

What to Watch

Investors should monitor whether the warning signs identified by skeptics in Q2 continue to accumulate or intensify. Key risk factors include Federal Reserve policy trajectory, corporate earnings revision trends, and credit market stress indicators that often precede equity market corrections. Hartnett's late-cycle designation suggests maintaining disciplined position sizing and reducing leverage in concentrated equity positions could be prudent preparations for increased volatility ahead.