Bitcoin BTC$77,340.41 may have established its cycle low during February's sharp selloff toward $60,000, according to multiple on-chain and derivatives indicators now flashing bullish signals for the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization.

Market Context

Broader crypto market conditions have shifted dramatically since the February correction. Bitcoin has recovered to trade above $77,000, representing a significant rebound from the multi-month lows that triggered widespread capitulation among traders and retail investors. The move comes as the broader digital asset complex shows signs of stabilization after months of elevated volatility.

Analysis

The first key metric is Realized Cap, which measures the total value of bitcoin based on the price each coin last moved on-chain. Unlike market capitalization tied to current prices, Realized Cap reflects the aggregate cost basis of investors and tracks capital entering or leaving the network. The metric peaked near $1.12 trillion before falling to roughly $1.08 trillion as bitcoin declined more than 50% from its October record high—a significant wealth destruction event, one of the largest on record. However, Realized Cap has now begun stabilizing and forming a base, mirroring patterns seen during lows of the 2022 bear market.

The second indicator gaining attention is the RHODL Ratio, which compares wealth held by longer-term holders (six months to two years) with newer market participants (one day to three months). The ratio currently sits above 5, marking its third-highest reading on record. Notably, the only higher readings occurred during the 2015 and 2022 cycle bottoms, suggesting long-term holders continue to dominate supply. Since February, long-term holder supply has increased by over 400,000 BTC—a substantial accumulation phase that historically precedes renewed uptrends.

A third signal comes from perpetual futures funding rates, which represent payments exchanged between long and short traders to keep futures prices aligned with spot markets. Funding remained negative for one of the longest periods on record between February and May 2026. Sustained negative funding reflects extreme bearish sentiment and overcrowded short positioning—conditions that often form market bottoms as selling pressure becomes exhausted. Similar setups occurred during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, the yen carry unwind in August 2024, and the tariff-driven selloff in April 2025, all of which ultimately marked major bitcoin lows.

Key Numbers

- Realized Cap stabilized near $1.08 trillion after falling from ~$1.12 trillion peak (~$40 billion decline)

- RHODL Ratio reading above 5 — third highest on record, with only higher readings during 2015 and 2022 bottoms

- Long-term holder supply increased by over 400,000 BTC since February

- Perpetual funding rates negative for extended period from February through May — one of longest stretches on record

What to Watch

Traders should monitor whether bitcoin can establish sustained support above the $75,000 level as critical near-term confirmation that the bottom is indeed in place. Key resistance sits at the October highs near $100,000. On-chain accumulation trends among long-term holders will be crucial to watch—if this cohort continues building positions, it would reinforce the case for a structural floor having formed. Upcoming macro catalysts including Federal Reserve policy decisions and regulatory developments could test whether the recovery has staying power or faces renewed selling pressure.