Rents are posting uneven gains across U.S. markets, with the Midwest and Northeast outpacing supply-saturated Sun Belt and Western regions—a dynamic that is reshaping the multifamily investment landscape heading into mid-2026. Lightstone, a vertically integrated owner-operator with more than 25,000 multifamily units under management, is now offering accredited investors access to its deal flow through the Lightstone DIRECT platform.

Market Context

The broader housing market continues to favor renters over buyers. CBRE data shows a 105% monthly premium to buy versus rent, underscoring that high mortgage interest rates have pushed more households into the rental pool. However, the development pipeline is cooling after years of record construction: NAHB projects multifamily starts will fall to 392,000 units in 2026 and 367,000 in 2027, down from a 38-year high of 608,000 completions in 2024.

Analysis

The bifurcation in rent performance reflects the supply-demand imbalance playing out across geographies. According to RealPage data for February 2026, effective asking rents posted consecutive monthly gains, but growth was highly uneven: the Midwest led at 2.0% annual growth, followed by the Northeast at 1.5%, while the South was flat and the West declined 1.4%. Markets with heavy luxury lease-up activity are seeing concessions and rent pressure, whereas supply-constrained regions in the industrial Midwest offer more stable cash-flow profiles.

Lightstone's portfolio is heavily concentrated in exactly these high-performing geographies: 14,304 of its 25,000+ units sit in the Midwest, with 10,325 units located in Michigan alone. This regional focus aligns with first- and third-party data showing healthier rent growth and less severe supply headwinds. The firm co-invests a minimum of 20% in each Lightstone DIRECT deal, aligning operator and investor outcomes.

In 2025, the portfolio averaged 94% occupancy, delivered 2.7% year-over-year rent growth, and posted 5.8% year-over-year NOI growth—metrics that reflect execution in a favorable operating environment. With $12 billion-plus in assets under management and a four-decade track record spanning multiple economic cycles, Lightstone brings institutional-scale operations to individual accredited investors.

Key Numbers

- CBRE reports a 105% monthly premium to buy versus rent, widening the renter pool

- NAHB forecasts multifamily starts will drop to 392,000 units in 2026 and 367,000 in 2027

- Midwest led February 2026 asking rents with 2.0% annual growth; Northeast gained 1.5%; South flat; West fell 1.4%

- Lightstone manages more than 25,000 multifamily units, with 14,304 in the Midwest and 10,325 in Michigan

- Portfolio averaged 94% occupancy and posted 2.7% YoY rent growth in 2025

- NOI grew 5.8% year-over-year across the portfolio in 2025

What to Watch

Watch for continued supply digestion in Sun Belt markets, which could pressure rents through late 2026 if new deliveries remain elevated relative to absorption. In contrast, Midwest and Northeast markets with limited new construction pipelines may sustain rent growth above 1.5% to 2.0%. Lightstone's next quarterly NOI reporting will signal whether portfolio occupancy and renovation throughput are maintaining the 94% benchmark. For investors evaluating Lightstone DIRECT deals, key diligence points include each property's lease-up status, debt structure, and specific submarket supply forecasts.