Arthur Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who now runs crypto-focused venture capital fund Maelstrom, said bitcoin's return to its October 2025 record is a "foregone conclusion," and he is positioning his fund for maximum risk as the bull market resumes.

Market Context

Bitcoin BTC $80,621.04 found a bottom at $60,000 earlier this year after a sharp correction from all-time highs. The largest cryptocurrency briefly rose above $82,000 on Tuesday before settling around $80,600 as of early afternoon trading in Asia. A return to the October 2025 record of $126,000 from current levels would represent an approximately 55% gain for holders.

Analysis

Hayes flagged $90,000 as the critical level where the rally turns "explosive." At that price point, writers of call options with higher strike prices would be forced to buy bitcoin to hedge their positions, creating a self-reinforcing buying dynamic. Call option writers typically bet that prices will not rise above a certain level; when proven wrong, they must purchase the underlying asset to cover their exposure.

The Maelstrom CIO identified two major tailwinds driving his $126,000 target. First, massive capital expenditure on artificial intelligence infrastructure has shifted from being funded by cash flow at large software companies to requiring credit creation by commercial banks and central banks. Hayes specifically pointed to the Federal Reserve and the People's Bank of China loosening financial conditions to support AI buildouts, with Chinese banks redirecting capital from real estate toward technology sectors.

The second tailwind stems from the U.S.-Iran conflict, which Hayes said has forced sovereign nations to rebuild domestic infrastructure and stockpile commodities rather than accumulate dollar-denominated assets. "War is inflationary, the AI buildout is inflationary, and the political will to print money to fund both is what produces the environment for bitcoin to outperform," he wrote in a Substack essay published Monday.

Hayes highlighted bitcoin's performance against the Nasdaq 100, the IGV software ETF, and gold since the start of the war on Feb. 28 as evidence that the asset has already begun pricing this macroeconomic shift.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin found bottom at $60,000 earlier in 2026

- October 2025 record high: $126,000

- Current price action: briefly above $82,000, recently around $80,600

- Potential upside from current levels to record: approximately 55%

- Hayes flags $90,000 as the "explosive" breakout level

What to Watch

Hayes disclosed Maelstrom's altcoin positioning, with large allocations to Hyperliquid's HYPE token and Zcash's ZEC, while identifying NEAR Protocol as the next pick. The NEAR thesis centers on its privacy narrative combined with an intents-based architecture that Hayes said will generate positive cash flow.

Two scenarios could derail the rally, according to Hayes: First, an "irresponsible mega-AI IPO or merger" in the U.S. or China that markets cannot absorb, potentially snapping investors out of what he described as a manic phase. Second, if a Democratic challenger in the 2028 presidential election runs on an anti-AI platform promising to curtail capital expenditure buildouts.

"It's a bull market; close your eyes and press the button," Hayes wrote. "There will be a time to sell, but it ain't right now." The November 2026 mid-term elections could serve as a "slight speed bump" before those potential headwinds materialize.