Bitcoin tumbled back below $80,000 late Thursday after the U.S. launched fresh airstrikes in Iran, causing Brent crude oil to briefly top $100 per barrel before giving back a portion of gains during Asia and European hours.

Market Context

The broader crypto market was already slightly jittery ahead of the geopolitical escalation after Strategy chairman Michael Saylor said that the company would consider selling bitcoin to cover dividend payments from its STRC—a u-turn from its previous "never sell" strategy. Ether (ETH) is trading at $2,280 having lost 0.2% since midnight UTC and around 2% over the past 24 hours, with other altcoins like Monero (XMR) and Dash (DASH) losing between 4% and 5%. Despite weakness in majors and memecoins, DeFi tokens outperformed as ONDO jumped over 8% following a cross-border U.S. Treasury redemption involving JPMorgan, Mastercard and Ripple.

Analysis

Crypto traders unwound leverage aggressively in the wake of bitcoin's drop below $80,000, with futures open interest falling 1.5% to $131.5 billion and trading volume plunging over 12% to $191 billion. Nearly $300 million in bets were liquidated across exchanges in a 24-hour period, with longs accounting for most of that tally—indicating traders were positioned for continued price rises into the weekend only to take the brunt of unexpected market weakness.

On Deribit, the most actively traded contract over the past 24 hours was a BTC $105,000 call option expiring June 26. However, market positioning has shifted notably, with the top five most traded contracts now including put options at $80,000, $75,000, and $60,000 strikes—a clear change from the previous three sessions when calls dominated trading activity.

Open interest (OI) has declined in most major tokens, including bitcoin and ether. Dogecoin's OI dropped by over 4%, the most among top 10 coins. TON stands out as the exception, with OI rising by 6%. For the second straight day, OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta for most majors remains negative—a sign of traders aggressively shorting using market orders rather than passive limit orders.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin price: $79,891.46 (fell below $80,000 threshold)

- Ether (ETH): $2,280 (-0.2% since midnight UTC, -2% over 24 hours)

- Futures open interest: $131.5 billion (down 1.5%)

- Trading volume: $191 billion (down over 12%)

- Liquidations: nearly $300 million in 24 hours

- ONDO gain: +8.2% following cross-border Treasury redemption

- Dogecoin OI: down over 4%

- TON OI: up 6%

What to Watch

Bitcoin's annualized 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) remains near 40%, the lowest since late January—a sign of market calm ahead of the pivotal U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. The broader crypto recovery remains intact with bitcoin having rallied from $65,000 in late March, though a drop below $75,000 would negate the recent string of higher lows and signal a reversion to the previous trading range. CoinMarketCap's "altcoin season" indicator stands at 42/100, significantly higher than April's low of 31/100.