Bitcoin could be on the verge of confirming a new bull market if it closes May above $76,000, according to Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine (BMNR) and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors.
Market Context
Speaking at Consensus 2026 in Miami on Thursday, Lee pointed to bitcoin's recent strength as a historical signal that the market is leaving behind the downtrend that saw prices crater from $126,000 in October to $60,000 in February. The CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index closed April at $76,300, while the asset was trading just below $80,000 at time of publication.
Analysis
"You have never in a bear market if bitcoin closes up three consecutive months," Lee said during his keynote presentation. "If bitcoin closes above $76,000 this month, the bear market is definitively over." After positive monthly returns in March and April, BTC was up roughly 5% in May so far, which would mark the third consecutive positive monthly return.
Lee argued that investors remain psychologically anchored to the last crypto downturn and are underestimating the strength of the current rebound. He also highlighted bullish technical signals from veteran trader John Bollinger, who recently said his trend models had turned positive on bitcoin.
Fueling the next bull market in crypto are two megatrends disrupting finance: all assets migrating onchain through tokenization and artificial intelligence agents using blockchain rails. Lee argued that AI agents will need money to move value autonomously and increasingly rely on blockchain networks and tokenized financial systems.
"The networks that host a large share of tokenized activity are going to capture the economic value," Lee said, pointing to stablecoin adoption as evidence the transition is already underway. Stablecoin transaction volumes have already surpassed Visa payments, while Grayscale's research indicates the $300 trillion securities market will eventually migrate to blockchain rails.
Lee compared JPMorgan—projected to earn roughly $60 billion this year with 300,000 employees—to firms like stablecoin issuer Tether and trading giant Jane Street, which generate similar profit levels with a fraction of the workforce. "Native digital companies using blockchain as settlement eliminate a lot of processes and people," he said.
Key Numbers
- Bitcoin price high: $126,000 (October 2025)
- Bitcoin price low: $60,000 (February 2026)
- CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index close (April): $76,300
- Current bitcoin trading level: just below $80,000
- May performance so far: roughly +5%
- JPMorgan projected annual earnings: ~$60 billion with 300,000 employees
- Tokenized securities market opportunity: $300 trillion (per Grayscale)
What to Watch
The key level to watch is bitcoin's monthly close above $76,000, which Lee says would definitively signal the end of the bear market. With May still in progress, traders should monitor whether BTC can sustain gains through month-end.
Also watch for continued institutional adoption of tokenized assets following JPMorgan and Ripple's recent cross-border tokenized Treasury settlement on the XRP Ledger involving Mastercard and Ondo Finance. The success of such settlements could accelerate migration of traditional finance to blockchain rails.