Veteran Trader Peter Brandt Sees Bitcoin Rallying to $250,000 in 2029 After Bottoming Later This Year

Veteran trader Peter Brandt, whose career spans nearly five decades in commodities markets dating back to the 1970s, has laid out a bold long-term thesis for bitcoin: a rally to $250,000 by late 2029—but only after the market finishes what he describes as a long, drawn-out bottoming process that could last into September 2026. The forecast places Brandt at odds with crypto analysts who argue the current downtrend already concluded in early February.

Market Context

Bitcoin has staged a notable recovery since early February, climbing over 25% to approximately $80,300, according to CoinDesk data. The cryptocurrency peaked near $126,000 in October 2025 before entering a bear phase that has tested traders' conviction in the market's structural strength. This price action unfolds against the backdrop of bitcoin's quadrennial mining reward halving cycle—a timing mechanism that has become a foundational framework for many market participants projecting future price trajectories.

Analysis

Brandt's forecast hinges on the consistency of bitcoin's four-year halving cycle, which has historically shaped peak and trough pricing patterns. According to his analysis, bitcoin bull runs have typically peaked roughly 16 to 18 months after each quadrennial mining reward halving, before sliding into year-long bear markets. New uptrends then tend to begin 12 to 18 months ahead of the next halving event. This pattern held in the most recent cycle, with bitcoin peaking in October 2025—approximately 18 months after the April 2024 halving that reduced per-block BTC mining rewards from 6.125 to 3.125.

The commodities veteran argues that if this historical rhythm holds, the bear market that began at the October peak should bottom around October 2026, with a new uptrend beginning thereafter and ultimately topping near $250,000 in late 2029—roughly 18 months after the April 2028 halving. 'I am not calling for a low until Sep/Oct 2026,' Brandt told CoinDesk in an email. 'It is not necessary for the recent low to be penetrated. We could get a rally and then chop sideways to down.'

Brandt acknowledged that his worst-case scenario would involve bitcoin moving back into what he describes as the lower green banana peel—potentially reaching the $50,000s or high $40,000s—before launching toward his $250,000 target. The trader stressed that his projection depends entirely on the market continuing to follow its historical rhythm, and he expressed willingness to reassess if price action deviates from expectations. 'If at some point the price discovery moves off script I will be forced to revise all my thinking,' he said.

The forecast positions Brandt in direct contrast with the prevailing consensus among crypto analysts, who contend that the downtrend beginning from the October peak concluded in early February around $60,000 and that the subsequent rally marks the start of a new uptrend rather than merely a pause within an ongoing bear market. This divergence highlights how even veteran traders can reach fundamentally different conclusions when analyzing identical price data through distinct cyclical frameworks.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin's October 2025 peak: approximately $126,000

- Current recovery level from February lows: over 25% gain to around $80,300

- April 2024 halving reduced per-block BTC reward: from 6.125 to 3.125 BTC

- Brandt's projected cycle bottom: September-October 2026

- Projected next bull market peak: $250,000 in late 2029

- Worst-case downside scenario cited by Brandt: $50,000s or high $40,000s

What to Watch

Traders should monitor whether bitcoin can sustain its recovery above key technical levels as the year progresses. The September-October 2026 timeframe represents a critical window for Brandt's thesis—if the market fails to bottom during this period, it would signal a deviation from historical patterns that could force a reassessment of the entire cyclical framework. Conversely, confirmation of a late-2026 bottom followed by steady price appreciation would support the structural case for targeting $250,000 by 2029. The April 2028 halving event will serve as an additional reference point for timing projections.