Bitcoin climbed to $77,400 Thursday, turning higher with other risk assets after earnings reports from the largest U.S. tech companies helped steady markets that had been grappling with ETF outflows and geopolitical uncertainty.

Market Context

The gains came after Apple (AAPL) joined peers with an earnings report that improved sentiment across the technology sector. The companies, which include Google parent Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), all reported double-digit revenue growth earlier this week. The synchronized strength in big tech helped pull investors back into equities and crypto alike.

Analysis

The earnings reports helped risk assets rise as renewed confidence in the AI growth story attracted buyers, though the bounce so far reflects relief buying rather than conviction that a new rally has begun. In a note shared with CoinDesk, crypto exchange Mercado Bitcoin said the market is dealing with "short-term pressure with still-mixed structural factors," including reduced rate-cut hopes, ETF outflows and higher geopolitical risk.

Oil remains a key factor for traders to monitor. Higher crude prices stemming from the Iran conflict and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could feed inflation, making central banks less willing to cut interest rates. That dynamic can weigh on crypto and other risk assets by making cash and bonds more attractive relative to higher-beta investments.

The Federal Reserve kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this week, though the four dissenting voices represented the most hawkish dissent since 1992. Mercado Bitcoin said the decision and the absence of clear rate-cut signals led markets to reprice policy expectations lower.

"In the short term, the market should remain volatile and highly reactive to economic data," said Rony Szuster, head of research at Mercado Bitcoin. "In the medium term, the structure remains dependent on the stabilization of institutional flows and the path of global monetary policy."

Jerome Powell's chairmanship at the Fed ends on May 15, and Kevin Warsh is expected to chair the June FOMC meeting—a transition that could induce volatility given Warsh's known preference for tighter monetary policy.

Key Numbers

- Bitcoin price: $77,400 (climb from prior levels)

- Spot bitcoin ETF outflows in late April: more than $400 million

- Brent crude settlement: $114.01 per barrel (hit four-year high of $126.41 earlier in the session)

- West Texas Intermediate futures: $105.54 (+0.45%)

- Federal Reserve rate range: 3.50% to 3.75%

- Fed dissenting voices this week: 4 (most since 1992)

What to Watch

The key test for bitcoin traders remains at the $80,000 level. A break above that zone could draw new buyers and establish fresh momentum, while a failed move may trigger selling if leveraged longs unwind. The weekly chart shows bitcoin testing rejection at this resistance zone, with RSI showing early signs of bullish divergence—price printed a lower low while RSI held higher—though this signal remains unconfirmed pending a weekly close above $80,000.

Market participants should also monitor bond yields, particularly the U.S. 30-year Treasury, which has been rising and poses macro headwinds for crypto markets. Additionally, any escalation in the Iran conflict or further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices higher, potentially limiting central bank flexibility on rate cuts.

With Powell's Fed tenure ending May 15 and Warsh taking the helm in June, expect elevated uncertainty around monetary policy expectations to keep volatility elevated in both traditional and crypto markets.