CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull Score Index has climbed to 50, marking the first time since bitcoin peaked above $126,000 that the composite metric has returned to neutral territory. The reading indicates exactly half of the index's ten underlying on-chain indicators are now bullish, while the remainder stay bearish — a milestone that signals the structural bear market may have ended.

Market Context

Bitcoin traded at approximately $77,800 on Thursday, up 0.4% over the prior 24 hours but well off the $79,388 high hit Wednesday evening. The cryptocurrency briefly touched $79,388 before easing back, standing out as the only major digital asset in positive territory over the past 24 hours while leading weekly gains against mostly flat or weaker rivals including ether, XRP and Solana.

Analysis

The Bull Score Index's return to neutral represents a genuine improvement in on-chain conditions rather than mere price action, tracking blockchain activity, investor profitability and liquidity across ten key metrics. Readings below 40 signal a structural bear market, while readings above 60 indicate a strong, sustainable uptrend — leaving the current 50 reading firmly in transitional territory.

CryptoQuant's analyst Julio Moreno, head of research at the on-chain data firm, highlighted a relevant historical precedent: March 2022, when the index rose to 50 and signaled what many believed was the end of that bear market. Similar to today, prices had rebounded from around $35,000 to nearly $48,000 in the weeks leading up to that signal. However, prices more than halved to under $20,000 in the following months as the bear market deepened.

Singapore-based QCP Capital, one of the largest digital asset trading firms, noted that derivatives positioning indicates a lack of conviction in the price recovery. 'Front-end vols around 40 vol remain subdued relative to realized, skew still favours downside protection, and term structure is only modestly upward sloping,' the firm said in a market note. 'Positioning continues to point to range-bound conditions rather than a sustained breakout.'

Key Numbers

- Bull Score Index reading: 50 (first time in this cycle since $126K peak)

- Bitcoin current price: ~$77,800 (up 0.4% over 24 hours)

- Price high: $79,388 (Wednesday evening)

- Prior cycle low: nearly $60,000

- March 2022 precedent: index hit 50 then price halved to under $20,000

- Front-end volatility: approximately 40 vol

What to Watch

Traders should monitor whether the Bull Score Index can sustain above 50 and push toward the 60 threshold that would indicate a strong sustainable uptrend. The March 2022 precedent suggests neutral readings can persist briefly before price resumes decline. Watch for shifts in derivatives positioning — particularly funding rates, skew and term structure — which currently suggest limited conviction in a sustained breakout. Any move above $80,000 could test whether the recovery has genuine institutional backing or remains range-bound.

The index has entered neutral territory for approximately one week in this cycle, similar to the March 2022 occurrence. Whether this marks a genuine turning point or another false signal will depend on whether bitcoin can sustain momentum above key resistance levels in the coming weeks.